JeI entry is PDP’s loss, NC’s gain in South Kashmir

Contest of pro-Pakistan party will cut away substantial vote from PDP

SRINAGAR: Entry of Jamaat-e-Islami, which has been the nerve centre of the pro-Pakistan insurgency in the last 34 years, into the electoral fray for the first time after 1990, can benefit Farooq Abdullah’s National Conference (NC) in South Kashmir in the current Assembly elections. A noticeable loser will be none other than Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP which got JeI’s support in all elections in the last 25 years.
In the post-1990 era, JeI supported Congress candidate Mufti Mohammad Sayeed for the first time in the Lok Sabha elections of 1998. Mufti defeated NC’s Mohammad Yousuf Taing.
Later, a section of the JeI electorate observed boycott to the elections but a section of the organisation voted for Mufti’s PDP invariably in the Assembly elections of 2002, 2008 and 2014.
While Farooq Abdullah ordered aggressive counterterror operations, Mufti’s PDP was vociferously critical of NC’s anti-Pakistan, anti-Hurriyat and anti-militant stand. In all the three Assembly elections, PDP got substantial support from JeI for its opposition to the alleged human rights abuse by the Police and security forces.
JeI has a substantial vote-bank in South Kashmir. In 1972, when it contested the Assembly elections, JeI won the twin seats of Kulgam and Nandi (which was later named as Homeshalibugh and is now known as Anantnag West). It also got a good number of votes in some other segments of South Kashmir.
Years later, when JeI contested on the tickets of Muslim United Front (MUF) in 1987, it again won the same two seats of Kulgam and Homeshalibugh. It lost the elections with just 100 votes in Bijbehara, 122 votes in Wachi, 336 votes in Shopian and 1,355 votes in Tral.
After the Assembly elections of 1987, JeI boycotted all elections and supported J&K’s separation from India through an armed insurgency, alleging that the NC-Congress coalition had rigged the polls.
Even as NC won a large number of seats in South Kashmir in 1996, after JeI’s support to PDP it got just the two seats of Tral and Anantnag in the Assembly elections of 2002. On the other hand, PDP won 8 out of 14 seats in South Kashmir—Pampore, Pulwama, Rajpora, Shopian, Noorabad, Homeshalibugh, Devsar and Shangus. Congress got Dooru and Kokernag while CPI (M) got Kulgam and Wachi.
In the Assembly elections of 2008, NC got a one-odd seat of Noorabad. While CPI (M) retained Kulgam, Congress retained Dooru and Kokernag. Rest 12 of the 16 seats were captured by PDP—at least 8 with the JeI’s support. This time Tral, Pampore, Pulwama, Rajpora, Wachi, Shopian, Homeshalibugh, Anantnag, Devsar, Shangus, Bijbehara and Pahalgam went to PDP.
In the Assembly elections of 2014, NC got two out of 16—Pahalgam and Homeshalibugh. Congress won Shangus and Devsar. CPI (M) again retained Kulgam. The Remaining 11 seats—Tral, Pampore, Pulwama, Rajpora, Wachi, Shopian, Noorabad, Anantnag, Dooru, Kokernag and Bijbehara—went to PDP. PDP also won all the three Kashmir seats, including South Kashmir, in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014.
NC won all the three Kashmir seats in the Lok Sabha polls of 2019 but a low voter turnout played a significant role in its victory. A bigger section of JeI boycotted the Lok Sabha elections, particularly in South Kashmir.
In the Lok Sabha elections of 2024, NC’s candidates (Mian Altaf Ahmad and Aga Ruhullah) secured 3,03,047 votes in the 16 segments in South Kashmir. Its arch rival, PDP candidates (Mehbooba Mufti and Waheed-ur-Rehman Parra) got 2,35,653 votes. This was the first indication of the PDP losing the JeI support.
Now that JeI has fielded at least four of its candidates as independents in South Kashmir and has declared support to PDP’s former MLA, Aijaz Ahmad Mir, in Zainapora (formerly Wachi), there are clear indications of Mufti’s party losing substantial vote in Kulgam, Devsar, Zainapora, Shopian and Pulwama segments.
While the benefit in Kulgam and Devsar can go to CPI (M) and Congress respectively, NC could turn out to be a beneficiary in Zainapora, Shopian and Pulwama. In Pulwama, NC had lost the Pulwama proper seat with a thin margin of less than 1000 votes in the Assembly elections of 2014. PDP’s three-time MLA from Pulwama, Mohammad Khalil Bandh, who won in 2002, 2008 and 2014, is now NC’s candidate in Pulwama against PDP’s Waheed-ur-Rehman Parra.

Updated On 9/8/2024 12:44:46 AM