POLL TROLL -2024: Poonch's demographics and political loyalties shape a complex electoral battle

BJP on the sidelines as INC, NC, and PDP gear up for a fierce contest

Jammu: The upcoming second phase of assembly elections in Poonch district, scheduled to commence on September 25, is poised to reaffirm the region's status as a significant battleground for key political parties: the Indian National Congress (INC), Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (NC), and Jammu & Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Despite the BJP's considerable successes elsewhere in the Jammu division, it appears unlikely to make substantial inroads in Poonch's politically intricate landscape.
Poonch district comprises three assembly constituencies: Surankote, Mendhar, and Poonch Haveli. Each of these constituencies was previously represented by different parties, reflecting the district's varied political leanings.
The last assembly, before its dissolution on November 19, 2018, by Governor Satya Pal Malik, saw Shah Mohammed Tantray of Jammu & Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (JKPDP) in Poonch Haveli, Mohammed Akram of the Indian National Congress in Surankote, and Javid Rana of the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference in Mendhar.
This diverse representation underscores the unique political fabric of Poonch, where multiple parties hold sway in different areas. The 2014 assembly elections, held in the erstwhile state, witnessed the BJP making significant gains across the Jammu division, securing 25 out of 37 seats.
However, Poonch remained steadfastly loyal to its established parties—the Indian National Congress, PDP, and NC—thereby denying the BJP a foothold in this stronghold.
A political analyst observing the forthcoming elections noted that the contest would likely remain fiercely contested among the three traditional parties—INC, NC, and PDP—with the BJP generally expected to remain out of contention.
This sentiment suggests that the electorate in Surankote, Mendhar, and Poonch Haveli will continue to support their established political preferences, thereby keeping the saffron party at bay.
Adding another layer to the electoral dynamics, the Poonch assembly constituency falls under the Rajouri-Anantnag Lok Sabha constituency. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP opted not to field a candidate in this area, which was instead won by Mian Altaf Ahmad of the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference.
This strategic decision underscores the BJP's limited focus on Poonch, possibly recognizing the challenging electoral terrain dominated by other parties.
The recent pre-poll alliance between the National Conference and the Indian National Congress further complicates the electoral equation. This strategic partnership aims to consolidate their collective voter base and present a united front against other contenders, potentially strengthening their position in Poonch.
The alliance could influence voters by combining the strengths and resources of both parties, thereby increasing their chances of securing victories across the constituencies.
Demographically, Poonch district, with a population of approximately 476,835 as of August 2024, ranks 548th out of 640 districts in India.. Poonch is part of the larger Jammu-Poonch Lok Sabha constituency, currently represented by Jugal Kishore Sharma of the BJP, highlighting a divergence between regional assembly preferences and parliamentary representation.
The religious composition of Poonch, according to the 2011 census, is predominantly Muslim (90.45%), followed by Hindus (6.84%), Sikhs (2.35%), Christians (0.20%), with smaller percentages of other religions and those not stating their religion. Urban areas within the district, constituting only 8.1% of the population, exhibit different religious proportions: Muslims (51.38%), Hindus (32.82%), Sikhs (14.62%), Christians (0.96%), among others.
This demographic diversity, coupled with the district's ethnic composition—including Gujjars, Bakerwals, Muslim Jats, Mughals, Syeds, Punjabis, Paharis, Kashmiris, and Muslim Rajputs—adds complexity to the electoral landscape. Political parties must navigate these intricacies, addressing the varied interests and concerns of different communities to secure voter support.
In summary, the Poonch assembly elections are set to be a highly competitive contest among the established parties—Congress, National Conference, and Peoples Democratic Party—each aiming to solidify or expand their influence in the region. The BJP, despite its broader successes in the Jammu division, is expected to remain largely uninvolved in these local electoral battles. The unique demographic and socio-political landscape of Poonch, along with the recent NC-INC alliance, sets the stage for a complex and closely watched electoral process as the region heads towards the September 25 polls.

Updated On 9/16/2024 4:16:27 AM