First time in 28 years: NC likely to cross 30-mark

No party has been able to get absolute majority, even 30 seats after 1996

Srinagar: Traditional ruling party Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC) seems to be poised to get over 30 seats out of 90 segments in the current Assembly elections in the Union Territory.
This is significant as no political party in Jammu and Kashmir has been able to cross the 30-mark after the Assembly elections of 1996. A party or an alliance needed to have a strength of 44 seats in the House of 87 to form a government till 2019. NC’s highest was 28 seats each in 2002 and 2008 Assembly elections even as it nosedived from 57 in 1996 to just 15 seats in 2014.
Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s PDP was the only party to bag 28 seats in the Assembly elections of 2014.
This time again, there seems to be no possibility of any political party getting an absolute majority of 46 seats in the House of 90 seats. Following the erstwhile State’s reorganisation and a resultant delimitation, the number of seats in J&K’s Legislative Assembly, on which elections are conducted, has risen from 87 to 90— 47 in Kashmir and 43 in Jammu.
In addition to that, the UT’s Lieutenant Governor is by law competent to nominate 5 persons as MLAs who, unlike the two nominees in the State’s Assembly till 2019, would have a right to vote in determination of the strength of a government. This way a political party or a coalition needs 48 seats to form the government or to prove majority.
In 1977, 1983, 1987 and 1996, NC got more seats than the absolute majority. Only in 1987, it had a pre-poll alliance with Rajiv Gandhi’s Congress party.
In 1996, NC contested independently and got a two-third majority—57 seats in a House of 87. Thereafter the coalition culture became a compulsion as no party was able to get even 29 seats. The result was a PDP-Congress government in 2002, the NC-Congress government in 2009 and PDP-BJP government in 2014.
Once again there are clear indications of a hung House and the formation of a coalition government as no party seems to get the absolute majority of 46 seats. Most of the voter surveys and exit polls have indicated an average of 45-48 for the NC-Congress alliance which includes the two seats of CPI (M) and National Panthers Party (NPP).
In 1987, NC got two-third majority with the help of Congress. In 1996, it secured the same independently. The situation changed after PDP came into being in 1999.
In 1996, NC got 57 seats, BJP 8, Congress 7 and BSP 4.
In 2002, NC came down from 57 to 28. Congress bagged 20 seats, PDP 16, NPP 4, CPM 2 and BSP 1. Others got a total of 15 seats.
In 2008, NC retained its mark of 28 seats. PDP rose up from 16 to 21 seats, Congress came down from 20 to 17 and the BJP went up from one seat to 11. NC and Congress formed the government.
In 2014, PDP went further up from 21 to 28 while BJP bagged 25 seats. NC dipped further from 28 to 15—the lowest of its electoral history. Congress went down from 17 to 12.
So, no political party got even 29 seats after 1996, let alone securing the absolute majority of 44 seats. BJP ran a sustained campaign for Mission-44 in 2014 but ended up with 25. It formed the government with the ideologically divergent PDP.
Even in the Assembly election of 2024, no party other than NC appears to be poised to cross the magical 30-mark.

Updated On 10/7/2024 3:50:27 AM