BJP’s vote surge amid setbacks in ST-reserved seats in Rajouri, Poonch

Saffron Party makes significant inroads in twin districts with just 29k votes in 2008 to over 2 lakh voters in 2024

Jammu, October 9: Even as the BJP lost all six seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs) despite granting ST status to ethnic Pahari tribe and political reservation to the STs in the Assembly, the just-concluded assembly polls have proved to be an encouraging sign for the Saffron party as its overall vote share has recorded a significant increase in these segments compared to previous polls held in 2014 and 2008.
Notably, the assembly segments in the border districts of Rajouri and Poonch stand out as exceptions in Muslim-dominated regions, where BJP candidates have performed surprisingly well.
If the party insiders are to be believed, the BJP leadership will review what went wrong in these segments, given the party secured only one seat out of eight in Poonch and Rajouri districts despite granting ST status to Pahari-speaking people and political reservation to the STs in the assembly polls. What was more shocking was the defeat of the J&K BJP chief, Ravinder Raina from the Hindu-dominated Nowshera seat.
Raina won this seat in 2014 by defeating his arch-rival Surinder Kumar Choudhary who defeated the BJP candidate in 2024 assembly polls with a huge margin of 7,819 votes.
A closer examination of the vote tallies reveals significant electoral gains for the BJP in Rajouri and Poonch during the assembly polls held in 2008, 2014, and 2024. It is quite visible that the BJP has managed to make significant inroads in Muslim-dominated assembly segments of these districts.
“In the 2008 elections, the party garnered just 29,359 votes across these districts, a number that surged to 113,890 in 2014. The latest elections saw over 2, 00,000 votes cast for BJP candidates in these same segments, signaling a remarkable upward trend,” the party sources told The News Now.
Of the eight assembly segments, the BJP won the Kalakote-Sunderbani seat, while its candidates remained runner-ups in all other seats, except the Surankote seat where the party stood third in the tally. The party’s improved showing can be attributed to a well-organized campaign strategy that resonated with voters.
“If we take the example of the Surankote seat, the BJP candidate finished ninth in 2008 with just 222 votes. By 2014, that figure climbed to 2,123, and in the 2024 elections, the candidate secured an impressive 23,773 votes, a testament to the party's outreach and pro-people policies,” a senior leader said declining to be named. ‘
Similarly, in the Mendhar constituency, the BJP’s votes rose from a mere 321 in 2008 to over 17,000 this year, showcasing the party’s growing influence in the region.
“The increased vote share in the border districts is seen as a positive development, boosting the morale of party workers and leaders, who are now more motivated to strengthen the BJP’s presence in the area, the leader said.
Pertinently, while the BJP won all seven seats reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs) in Jammu, it faced a complete rout in the ST-reserved seats, which included Rajouri, Thannamandi, Budhal, Mendhar, Poonch, and Gulabgarh which indicated that 10 percent reservation given to Paharis and nine seats reserved for STs in the Legislative Assembly failed to yield desired results for the party in these elections. Rajouri seat went to Congress, while Thannamandi was won by an Independent. In all four seats, NC candidates emerged victorious.
“The BJP’s strategy, which included the reservation of nine seats for STs and a 10 percent quota for Paharis, did not translate into electoral success in these areas. As the party reflects on its mixed results, the focus will likely be on understanding voter preferences and adapting strategies to ensure more comprehensive representation in future elections,” a leader said.
It may be placed here that Paharis have a large population in Rajouri and Poonch districts where BJP bagged just one out of eight seats.

Updated On 10/10/2024 1:51:12 AM